What stocks did after every government shutdown since 1993.
There have been 6 government shutdowns since 1993. A year later, the S&P 500 was higher 5 times and lower 1. Every case is below, the losses too.
There have been 6 government shutdowns since 1993. A year later, the S&P 500 was higher 5 times and lower 1. Every case is below, the losses too.
A shutdown starts when Congress misses a funding deadline and parts of the federal government close until a deal passes. Each date is the month a shutdown began.
6
Since 1993
5
of 6
1
of 6
+16.4%
The middle result
−6.3%
Best: +33.5%
Newest first. What the S&P 500 did 1 month, 3 months and 1 year later.
| Event | 1 mo | 3 mo | 1 yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShutdownOct 2025 | +2.6% | +2.6% | +14.7% |
| ShutdownDec 2018 | +9.2% | +16.0% | +33.5% |
| ShutdownJan 2018 | −3.2% | −4.9% | −6.3% |
| ShutdownOct 2013 | +4.9% | +8.9% | +15.7% |
| ShutdownDec 1995 | −1.6% | +5.7% | +17.1% |
| ShutdownNov 1995 | +4.5% | +10.3% | +24.3% |
S&P 500 (SPY) closing prices, price change only. Past moves are not a promise of future results.
More history: Fed cuts · Fed hikes · All 18 events
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A month after each shutdown, the S&P 500 was higher 4 of 6 times. A year after, it was higher 5 of 6 times. The worst year was −6.3%, after the Jan 2018 shutdown.
The best year was +33.5%, after the Dec 2018 shutdown. The worst was −6.3%, after the Jan 2018 shutdown. The typical result, the middle one, was +16.4%.
No. It shows what happened before, not what will happen next. Each case came with other news going on, which is why the worst result is always shown next to the best.
S&P 500 (SPY) closing prices, price change only, 1 month, 3 months and 1 year after each event. Dividends aren't included.
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