What stocks did after the Fed started cutting rates.
The Fed has started a round of rate cuts 6 times since 1993. A year later, the S&P 500 was higher 4 times and lower 2. Every case is below, the losses too.
The Fed has started a round of rate cuts 6 times since 1993. A year later, the S&P 500 was higher 4 times and lower 2. Every case is below, the losses too.
Each date is the Fed's first rate cut after a stretch of holding or raising rates. Later cuts in the same round aren't counted again, so a long round counts once.
6
Since 1993
4
of 6
2
of 6
+13.1%
The middle result
−18.9%
Best: +20.6%
Newest first. What the S&P 500 did 1 month, 3 months and 1 year later.
| Event | 1 mo | 3 mo | 1 yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed cutSep 2024 | +3.8% | +4.1% | +17.6% |
| Fed cutJul 2019 | −3.3% | +0.9% | +8.6% |
| Fed cutSep 2007 | +3.8% | −1.5% | −18.9% |
| Fed cutJan 2001 | +5.4% | −14.3% | −9.3% |
| Fed cutSep 1998 | +4.0% | +18.2% | +20.6% |
| Fed cutJul 1995 | +2.4% | +6.6% | +19.2% |
S&P 500 (SPY) closing prices, price change only. Past moves are not a promise of future results.
More history: Shutdowns · Fed hikes · All 18 events
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A month after the first cut of each round, the S&P 500 was higher 5 of 6 times. A year after, it was higher 4 of 6 times. The worst year was −18.9%, after the Sep 2007 cut.
The best year was +20.6%, after the Sep 1998 cut. The worst was −18.9%, after the Sep 2007 cut. The typical result, the middle one, was +13.1%.
No. It shows what happened before, not what will happen next. Each case came with other news going on, which is why the worst result is always shown next to the best.
S&P 500 (SPY) closing prices, price change only, 1 month, 3 months and 1 year after each event. Dividends aren't included.
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