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The record · 1993 – 2025

18 big events. Every result.

Each dot is big news from the last 33 years. Tap one to see what stocks did after. The losses stay in.

Higher a year laterLower a year laterS&P 500 · 1993 – today
Event 14 of 18S&P 500 closes

Government shutdown

Dec 2018 · Happened 4 times before

1 month+9.2%3 months+16.0%1 year+33.5%

14 higher a year later. 4 lower.

Most of the time, big news felt worse than it turned out. Not always. The four that went the other way are right here too.

Events

18

Since 1993

Higher, 1 yr

14

of 18

Lower, 1 yr

4

of 18

Typical, 1 yr

+12.3%

The middle result

Worst, 1 yr

−18.9%

Best: +38.5%

Higher after 1 month
10 of 18
Higher after 3 months
10 of 18
Higher after 1 year
14 of 18

The full list.

Newest first. Tap an event to see it on the chart.

Showing 18 of 18
EventDate1 month1 mo3 months3 mo1 year1 yr
Oct 2025+2.6%+2.6%+14.7%
Sep 2024+3.8%+4.1%+17.6%
Mar 2022+2.8%−14.0%−7.1%
Jul 2019−3.3%+0.9%+8.6%
Dec 2018+9.2%+16.0%+33.5%
Jan 2018−3.2%−4.9%−6.3%
Dec 2015−8.3%−0.8%+9.8%
Oct 2013+4.9%+8.9%+15.7%
Sep 2007+3.8%−1.5%−18.9%
Jun 2004−2.7%−1.9%+4.6%
Jan 2001+5.4%−14.3%−9.3%
Jun 1999−1.3%−4.3%+8.0%
Sep 1998+4.0%+18.2%+20.6%
Mar 1997−3.8%+11.9%+38.5%
Dec 1995−1.6%+5.7%+17.1%
Nov 1995+4.5%+10.3%+24.3%
Jul 1995+2.4%+6.6%+19.2%
Feb 1994−2.9%−5.8%+0.4%

S&P 500 (SPY) closing prices, price change only. Past moves are not a promise of future results. Every new alert gets added here with its follow-ups.

The next one

Next time,
you'll know the history.

The next alert lands the day big news hits. With every past time, losses included.

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