What stocks did after the Fed started raising rates.
The Fed has started a round of rate hikes 6 times since 1993. A year later, the S&P 500 was higher 5 times and lower 1. Every case is below, the losses too.
The Fed has started a round of rate hikes 6 times since 1993. A year later, the S&P 500 was higher 5 times and lower 1. Every case is below, the losses too.
Each date is the Fed's first rate hike after a stretch of holding or cutting rates. Later hikes in the same round aren't counted again, so a long round counts once.
6
Since 1993
5
of 6
1
of 6
+6.3%
The middle result
−7.1%
Best: +38.5%
Newest first. What the S&P 500 did 1 month, 3 months and 1 year later.
| Event | 1 mo | 3 mo | 1 yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed hikeMar 2022 | +2.8% | −14.0% | −7.1% |
| Fed hikeDec 2015 | −8.3% | −0.8% | +9.8% |
| Fed hikeJun 2004 | −2.7% | −1.9% | +4.6% |
| Fed hikeJun 1999 | −1.3% | −4.3% | +8.0% |
| Fed hikeMar 1997 | −3.8% | +11.9% | +38.5% |
| Fed hikeFeb 1994 | −2.9% | −5.8% | +0.4% |
S&P 500 (SPY) closing prices, price change only. Past moves are not a promise of future results.
More history: Shutdowns · Fed cuts · All 18 events
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A month after the first hike of each round, the S&P 500 was higher 1 of 6 times. A year after, it was higher 5 of 6 times. The worst year was −7.1%, after the Mar 2022 hike.
The best year was +38.5%, after the Mar 1997 hike. The worst was −7.1%, after the Mar 2022 hike. The typical result, the middle one, was +6.3%.
No. It shows what happened before, not what will happen next. Each case came with other news going on, which is why the worst result is always shown next to the best.
S&P 500 (SPY) closing prices, price change only, 1 month, 3 months and 1 year after each event. Dividends aren't included.
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