One alert. Then the whole record.
What sets off an alert, what's in it, and what happens after.
Only news with a history behind it.
An alert goes out when one of these hits and there's a real record to look at. Some weeks are quiet. That's on purpose.
01 · Rates
Fed decisions
Rate cuts, hikes and big surprises from the Fed.
02 · Data
Jobs & inflation
Monthly jobs and inflation (CPI) reports that move markets.
03 · Drops
Big down days
When the S&P 500 falls hard in a single day.
04 · Macro
Oil, rates & the dollar
Big moves in oil prices, bond rates and the dollar.
05 · Earnings
Big-company earnings
Results from the largest companies in the market.
06 · Politics
Government shutdowns
When Washington stops funding the government.
Inside an alert.
This is the alert from the 2018 government shutdown, and the follow-up a month later.
The Hindsight DeskThe government shuts down.
It has happened 4 times before. Here's what the S&P 500 did a year later.
4Times before
3 of 4Higher a year later
+24.3%Best
−6.3%Worst
Typical: +16.4% a year later.
Dec 22, 2018 · 9:41 AM
Follow-up · one month laterSince the alert, the S&P 500 is up 9.2%. Next check-in: 3 months.
Jan 22, 2019 · 9:30 AM
- 01
The event
What happened, in one line.
- 02
Times before
How many times it happened since 1993.
- 03
Higher a year later
How many of those times the S&P 500 was up a year later.
- 04
Best and worst
The full range. The worst case is always shown.
- 05
Typical
The middle result, so one big year doesn't fool you.
- 06
The follow-up
A month later, how it actually played out.
How each record is built.
Same steps every time, so you can trust the numbers and check them yourself.
01 · Find
Every past case
Back to 1993. The same kind of event, every time it happened. Nothing picked because it looks good.
02 · Measure
The S&P 500 after
The closing price on the day of the news, then 1 month, 3 months and 1 year later. Price change only.
03 · Keep
The losses
Bad outcomes stay in. 4 of the 18 events in the record were lower a year later, and they're all on the record.
Why the S&P 500? It's the closest thing to “the market” most people own, through index funds and 401(k)s.
Not a prediction.
A record.
The past doesn't promise anything. It shows how often scary news turned out fine, and when it didn't. You decide what to do.
Since 1993
The market has a memory.
The market has a memory.
Now you do too.
One alert when big news hits. Every past time, losses included.
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